Ebola virus, Can Chinese medicine be more effective? (Revised)

The pathology:  The particle consists of a genome wrapped up in two layers of protein. When the virus infects a cell the polymerase makes copies of genome and the cells is tricked into using these to make the proteins that the virus needs. Particularly, VP35 and VP24 prevent interferon, a class of molecule that alerts the immune system from being made. The sugars on the virus’s outside make it hard for other parts of the immune system to get to grips with; the virus makes infected cells produce more glycoprotein than it needs for its coats, with the surplus simply secreted into the bloodstream. Antibodies which would otherwise attack the virus stick to this decoy protein instead.

Immune cells which the virus attacks in the bloodstream early on carry attacks in the blood stream early on carry the infection to the liver, the spleen, and lymph nodes. Symptoms may manifest themselves in a day or two or may wait weeks. Eventually the virus’s spread triggers an immune overreaction known as a cytokine storm. Blood vessel walls become leaky, blood pressure and core temperature drop, organs fail and the body goes into shock. Some of the sick weather the storm, but most who survive infection do so by never getting to its direst straits. Some do not succumb at all. Some infected but never fallen ill.

The epitome of Ebola symptoms: Ebola’s patient can feel like the flu or other illnesses. Symptoms show up 2 to 21 days after infection and usually include:

•           High fever

•           Headache

•           Joint and muscle aches

•           Sore throat

•           Weakness

•           Stomach pain

•           Lack of appetite

As the disease gets worse, it causes bleeding inside the body, as well as from the eyes, ears, and nose.  Some people will vomit or cough blood, have bloody diarrhoea, and get a rash.

In Chinese Medicine theory, it is categorized as 热毒疫，Bleeding is corresponding to the theory of 热入血分, 迫血妄行  (heat invaded the blood phase, forcing blood off course).  TCM diagnoses it as a combination of  endotoxin derived from heat(热毒), internal stasis of dampness heat（湿热）, blood stasis（血瘀） ;As the virus attacks immune system, particularly, It further weaken spleen（脾） and kidney（肾）, in TCM terms, resulting deficiency in Yin and Yang（阴阳两虚）. The following prescription is in accordance with the rules of treatment of the diagnosis above:

鲜马齿苋1两 (Fresh Purslane herb)   川黄连5钱(Golden thread)    生大黄3钱（后下）(Rhubarb)制附子3 钱 (Prepared common monkshood daughter root))  硫黄2 分(Sulfur)   灶心土1 两(Furnace Soil)     川厚朴3 钱 (Officinal magnolia bark)    佩兰3钱(Fortune eupatorium herb)   乌梅6钱  (Smoked plum)   肉豆蔻3 钱  (Semen Myristicae)   漂白术5 钱 (Largehead Astractylodes Rhizome)    淮山药5 钱  (Common yam rhizome)  京赤芍3 钱 (Red Peony root)     淡干姜3 钱(Zingiber Dried Ginger)     粉葛根5 钱  (Kudzuvine Root) 单桃仁3钱 (Peach seed)      晚蚕砂3钱 (Silkworm Shit)    东阿胶5 钱(烊化)(Gelatin)( melting by heat)    牡丹皮3 钱  (Tree peony bark)   净连翘5 钱 (Weeping forsythia capsule)和   杭白芍 6 钱,(White peony root)

I posted the prescription on social media, but was given short shrift and brushed aside. I think there are several reasons for what happens the way it is.

One, we all pedestal authority, worship mainstream institution preponderantly as beyond doubt, other non-mainstream sources are slighted.

Two, culture differences on taking risk: The American culture to taking drug (Medicine) is more conservative; prefer FDA approval by rigorously tested and yielding positive results. It is good, but comes at a high price.

Three, the prevalent trends is towards discovery of new vaccine, seeing this path as the only way out of taming the epidemic.

There is nothing egregiously bad for the reasons I mentioned. It is all about choices we have, and the circumstances we are in. For example, WHO allowed untested drug for use, it is the circumstances determine the choices at hand and calibrated a seemingly unethical decision hopefully to ameliorate the situation.

We makes grave mistake without spanning the full gamut if we are obstinate to rule out every possibility of finding viable solution passing through the crucible.  This can happen to us because we have little knowledge of certain treatments; we have warped opinion of it, we disregard every avenue in the experiments in the discovery process. All those are not science. Many of the time, these kinds of behavioural distortions imbue our thinking; it becomes hindrance to great discovery due to our ignorance.

Why I think my prescription worth a second look?

It is a credible choice among current treatments. Mainstream medical treatments have yet come out with anything proclaimed efficacious; it is worth spending the resources on something may serendipitously cut the mustard.

The solution is relatively cheap and affordable to many Africans compared to many Western drugs.

At present, there is an ethical conundrum that too many patients chasing for paucity of unproven drugs available. To whom are to give first? (The situation may change soon, but most vaccine are untested) With this prescription, there is a ready source of supplies to go round for all patients. Restriction of human movements is futile to resolve the root cause but just control the spread and it elicits incessant other social and economic problems, It is hell-bent to quickly finding an efficacious solution,  key to preventing things run amok.

I don’t claim it is hundred per cent efficacious, there is no perfect drug even proven by authority, those who study medicine probably assent to this point. Much of the drawing from this prescription is: it is based on thousand years of empirical experiments and also I have no skin in the game.

Solution to long-term Joblessness, OOPs! It is behavioral economics, stupid!

How do you think of a loose monetary policy, ultra-low interest rate with benign inflation environment, will it impel a big boost to perennial long-term joblessness? Wall Street journalist wrote an intriguing article about Fed debate on this issue on June 19 2014.

According to the Wall Street Journal, there are two camps. One led by former Obama’s economic advisor, Mr Alan Krueger. In his Brookings  Institution study, he found that around 11% of the unemployed(>1/2 year) measly got a full time job within 15 months; and about a quarter had part time job, the remaining unemployed (about two-thirds in the survey) had either given up job search completely or staying unemployed. In his follow up work, the results were not any better. Only 22% long-term unemployed since 2008 recession returned to full employment. He arrived at the conclusion that unemployment is still hither and thither, and accented that a different set of tools might be more effective given the context described above prosaically didn’t crank enough promising job gain for long-term joblessness.

Another camp in the ructions led by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen and some other Fed economists. MS Yellen specializes in labour economics. This camp’s imprimatur that by moderating monetary policy, coupled with an economic environment which is conducive, such as low interest rate and inflation, will strengthen the economy, and ultimately those remaining unemployed will segue into catching the last bus. Long-term unemployed exhibit immensely hidden labour supplies which emasculate higher wages and inflation, and they conclude that there is no necessity to raise rate anytime soon; whereas Mr Krueger thought inflation had not been responsive to long–term unemployment because they are so detached from the labour force.

There was other research ran afoul to Mr Krueger’s view, according to Wall Street Journal, by Fed economist Christopher Smith, he found unemployed for long stretches tended to have better luck finding jobs after short-term unemployment had fallen. He is probably one in Ms Yellen’s camp.

We are easily fixated by our own view depending on our academic focus. That wrongheaded view also influences our analysis, neglecting psychological factors underplay in the micro environment which is crucial to the sticky problem, resulting an imperfect solutions. Unencumbered by orthodoxy, I am particularly interested in the issue from different perspectives, because I am one of the victims. I participated in LinkedIn's group discussion with other long-term unemployed, and am also interested in observing the trends worldwide how each country rectifies the problem. I find the bane of assertions is the result of oblivion to behavioural economics.

Many heard about behavioural finance, few about behavioural economics. Let get back to the debate, Ms Yellen’s camp assumptions hold that so long the economy keeps strengthening, there will be more jobs created, and a stronger economy consumes more labour supply, in a tighter labour market, long-term unemployed stand a better chance eventually be drawn back to the job market. The reality is the US leads the world in the road of economic recovery, why legion of above expectation job creation, resulting in paucity of long-term joblessness improvements? The stickiness showcases there are deep rooted cause neglected. This deep rooted cause is the job market paradigm.

This ingrained paradigm, to say the least, is the prejudice discriminates against the long-term unemployed, resulting they eclipse to the bottom in the pile of candidate selection. Not all categories are in dire straits. It depends on the nature of job market such as blue collar or white collar categories, Junior or senior position categories and industry differences. For example, in the country where I live, the government to get rid of over reliant on foreign workers, imposes higher foreign worker levies, issues fewer employment passes, sounds xenophobic? On the other hand, reward hiring unemployed, such as cash bonus for re-joining the job market, or rebate for hiring unemployed. The policy effect is mixed.

For service sector which demand greater manpower, low skill job, the employer has incentive to hire senior workers (Low skill/ age discrimination is pertinent to high unemployment in this category) the government crowed about the some successes in rehiring senior worker basically belong to this category. For skilled worker such as in construction industry, relying on foreign workers is almost indispensable. Employers are in no choice filling the vacuum of time lag to train the unemployed master the skills but choose to pay for higher levies. Other categories of long-term joblessness are hardly moving. Resort to unruly exogenous policy factors can only achieve result this far, that result speaks a combination of circumstances. Don’t read too much of new-fangled labour statistics without understanding the underlying root cause.

Suffice it to say, it is more than just a grain of truth and is unimpeachable that discrimination is rampant put long-term job seekers in dire straits. Most employers shun people who are unemployed for various reasons.

First, the employer has a big pool of candidate to choose from, they prefer to give opportunity to those are still working. So, even the job market recovers, the odd thing is the unemployed always rank the last among other candidates to compete for only one opening, at this rate, what is the chance to catch the last bus; the long-term unemployed are downright on an unequal footing with other candidates? They cannot sue prospective employer for discrimination just because he being unemployed, and, in the least, there is no concrete evidence to prove that, the whole selection process is a black box!

Second, they are not sure whether your skills are up-to-date. There is no guarantee you will be hired because you keep yourself up-to-date. It is just to give the employer the assurance of their money worth. And this assurance is weak. The employer prefers to believe those still working are up-to-date though copious of empirical evidence proves otherwise. There are certain jobs their characteristics are going through routine cycle every day. There is little knowledge enhancement in some jobs. To choose to believe your competency or not is up to the decision maker, there is little help and is vulnerable on the unemployed. It is the employer who calls the shot.

Third, working at senior level even worse, many get the job through executive search firms; they basically work for client rather than the candidate. The inclination is that it is downright hard if not impossible for them (If they are saints at all) to table to their client an unemployed for the position. The exceptions are: usually a crapshoot when they seek candidate with unique industry experience, or client lays down very harsh searching requirements, hard to find suitable candidates or they resort to predatory behavior knowing you have fewer choices left by denigrating you to a more junior position to showcase their client they got a candidate is cheap and good for them.

Fourth, odds are that, even leaving your previous employment is none of your fault due to circumstances that many of us can’t control, such as organization restructuring. The long-term unemployed are subject to even rigorous scrutiny, sometimes unfounded suspicions; such as whether you are still vigorous and active and ready to adapt to life change? All that said, in time, it becomes a paradigm to reject unemployed outright.

The long–term joblessness is unrelated to the economy boom or bust. The teething problem is an attitude change that matters. To overcome discrimination hurdle, we need to prove in reality there is not much difference in delivering result between those in the job and the long-term unemployed.

To amplify incentive to be more effective, it must fulfill several requirements: First, it must be visible, a tangible benefit says more than thousand words; second, it must have immediate benefit: you must not defer the benefits to the future period, so that the benefit is visible at once to incite motivation reaching apogee. Most employers will not dither to participate in the incentive scheme. If they can see advantage is immediate; third, it is to serve the purpose of employment; the long-term unemployed must deliver service reasonably to the satisfaction of the employer

Instead of using tax incentive, a nifty idea in my view is to set up a long-term unemployed rehiring scheme Long-term unemployed is required to register under the scheme to deter frauds and for further tracking. Under this scheme, a fund is setting up to pay the unemployed salary in lieu 100% for the first three months and 50% for the subsequent three months. The logic is to set up a trial period for hiring the unemployed to prove to employer that there is not much difference in between people in employment and those unemployed, the flimsy ideology of incompetency of long-term unemployed is the culprit snuffing out long-term unemployed to rejoin the job market. You can’t foist but coax employer to canvass their support to give those unemployed a second chance, and they very much deserve it. The idea is same analogy as any manufacturer marketing their new product, a trial period at very low price is set for a period of time until the consumers are addicted. I believe, in time to come, after six months, the unemployed new recruit is pretty much clandestinely wired into the operation system. As year go by, few will like to question the capability of long–term unemployed. By doing so, the government can recoup some costs from savings of unemployment benefit handout, in the US stance.

The implementation process is susceptible to frauds, the first adulterated fraudulent practice is  to spike dummy unemployed in order to claim benefits, To scotch this fraud, money must deposit directly to the new employee’s bank account, and this also accentuates the notion of "working for free" in the mind of the employers. Another kind of fraudulent practice is employer fires the unemployed every three months to gain advantage of free worker service at the expense of tax payer's money. That is why registration is important for verification, keeping track of the employment record to blunt vile effects.

All told, behavioral economics is, by far, offering trenchant enunciation better and allay the plight of stickiness of long-term joblessness than other wan joblessness theories which not one of them made the cut. It delves into the root cause of the problem by changing the hiring party’s behavior to eliminate discrimination.

Best comment in 2014

1   US sanctions against Moscow could come as early as Monday - FT.com |... 26 April 2014

I am pessimistic. The effects of sanction are rather slow and meek lagging behind strategically the pace their opponent (Russia) acting which is solid and to the point. It is a bad deal, inimical to Ukrainian either by losing their territory in exchange for further sanction. Those ex-soviet secessionist countries are wary intensely. Is the kind of protection they will receive from the West similar to that of Ukraine? I am also wary of the jarring EU members’ resolve and solidity to counter Russian’s aggression.

One third of gas supplies are from Russia to Europe. Some European members can’t endure the short- term pain of gas supply shortage to look for long- term solution of energy dependency. There is no spirit of sacrifice; what happened in Ukraine has not, in a least, imminent threat to them; because they are not one of ex-soviet, and Russia is far and away that stand them in good stead. To rest on their laurels for the false dawn of peace in no small measure, as ill luck would have it, is an omen of sound the death knell. Revanchist’s ambition will not just stop at reverting to Soviet which is a gospel truth.

Without NATO, it is not clear a bloc which cutting defense expenses profusely can withstand immense pressure by the incursion of Russia in nick of time. Or are they still dreaming Russia is an affable lion in the jungle. It is realized now, more than at any other time that as global police, the US should envision where the global hot spots are?  And draw up its military plans by training regional military forces at those hot spots(self-governing), so that it will not firefighting sending troops round the globe, be they in  middle East, Europe, or Asia pacific. This regional security structure will alleviate the financial burden of the US; the regional security is borne out by regional countries per se.

What the overarching teething troubles facing Ukraine are obligatory allegiance to the country and the concept of sovereignty. A divided country is ungovernable. The new government will find allegiance problem, at the very worst, continue to haunt them, enfeeble them, be it in cabinet, military or man in the street. It was a history baggage by the decision of the dictator-- Stalin; Russians migrated to the Eastern part of Ukraine. Now those Russians must make a choice either choose allegiance to Ukraine or return to Russia; so that the splitting country can move on. Those Russians living in Eastern Ukraine have weak concept of sovereignty, they thought Ukraine is still part of Russia and by no means, a sovereign country. That mindset must change and it takes time.

How to turn around Ukraine economy? 

Ukraine is predominantly, in the main, an agricultural and mining country. Ukraine should not rush to transform its economy by large scale industrialization. That way will never succeed. It must take stock of current capability by playing a complementary role in the world market, tapping into advanced skills from the West to improve productivity in agricultural sector, and push for clean coal and nuclear power for energy sustainability. 

But in spite of all this, Industrialization is a process where Ukraine must determine what role to play in the value creation process and assessing its capability, build capability around the chosen role and migrating to it.  It takes time to change and train the existing resources. Least of all, don’t tear down factories, and all hell makes loose, leaving wandering unemployed on the street creating chaos and social unrest. On all these grounds, the reform must one step at a time; by this, in the course of time change will happen.

2.  UPDATE 1-Russia's Gazprom says Ukraine did not pay for gas on time Reuters 9 April 2014

Russia does not disrupt gas supply for now of course not due to mercy in earnest, but has scruples about evocative effects of downstream supplies to Europe which reminisce the danger of energy dependency plaguing the EU in the past. That shows Russia is reticent if disruption will precipitate the losing of big customers from EU. Globalization accentuates mutual dependency. But there is a difference in leveraging power in between energy supplier and customers. As EU has built up their energy reserves, they can withstand the shock of short-term supply disruption that tips the balance. In other words, they are better leverage than the Russia is.

But anything can happen for now, as nationalism of reverting to old Soviet imbues in Russia, to Russians, the dissolution of ex-Soviet was above reproach, Putin’s incursion by means of nefarious tactics to the secession of ex-soviet Federations endears fervent support domestically, some describe it as revanchism that pushing up Mr Putin's rating. For that, Mr Putin may hell-bent on making aberrated decision, a brink of abyss


3 .No, Russia Isn’t Going Broke Any Time Soon

Rising bond yield signified higher risk intrinsically inherent in bond issue; i.e. higher cost of fund. If you want to judge whether Russia is going broke. The fund use tells the entire story whether it is ominous. If the bond’s proceeds are gearing towards maintaining existing structure, probably the writing is on the wall. It means the government is running out of tax revenues, fiscal condition is deteriorating.

To punish Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the West’s retaliation is reactive, and impotent. Russia does not take it seriously. The West is still harbouring the illusion that Russia will cave in by  limited sanctions and will withdraw troops from Crimea. It is really making Mr Putin pooh-poohed. That is how he can maintain upper hand pitting against the West, making the West dumbfounded and crestfallen, gritting their teeth; it is because his every punch was forceful.

How he deliberately annexed Crimea and legalize to make it a fait accompli, how he countered Western sanction by imposing doubling gas price to Ukraine. So, the aids from US, EU or IMF are transferred to left hand of Ukraine and right hand pay for the gas bills, also his plan to build Crimea as the special economic zone.   The jarring west is still pondering until the next step if Russia’s incursion will cover the whole of Ukraine, and then possibly step up further economic sanction. If Russia does not feel the pinch of the sanction, then possibly the punch does not carry any weight at best. That is why Russia is still talk big.

The crux to cripple Russia’s economy as I mentioned in my previous comment is to boycott any energy trading with Russia. It is quixotic! Russia can’t build gas pipes fast enough to the East to make up the short fall. China can’t fill the vacuum to absorb all the needs. The question is the West till now does not have a nifty concrete plan for alternative replacement to blunt the imminent impacts of Russia energy supplies. Russia just gave an onslaught quick punch by raising Ukraine’s energy price. Ukraine has to seek EU for alternative energy supply.

 

In fact, Ukraine can play tit for tat afoot by cutting water and electric supplies to Crimea (80 % of Crimea depends on Kieu for importing electricity and water) or raising the price to make up for gas price increase. Since the peninsula is not self sufficient  

4. Putin No Mad Man to Russians as Power Play Trumps Economic Risk (Bloomberg) 17 March 2014

There are two interesting arguments here:

1. Does the Russians live in Crimea have the rights to change loyalty to another country by annexing a sovereignty of the country they live to their origin by way of referendum?

In my previous comment, I cited Russian does not respect international law, military might and nuclear threat say much louder. From the Russian point of view, Crimea was once part of Russia. And majority of Crimean are Russians. They are parochial. Today, some Russian political analysts even criticized Khrushchev a drunkard by giving up Crimea to Ukraine during the dissolution of ex-soviet.

In other words, Few Russians know or respect international law but indulge in nationalist territorial ambition of the old Soviet Federation. It is same argument like China citing historical reason that hundred years back, South China Sea was once annexed into China’s territory, therefore is a legitimate claim, but vehemently oppose other claiming party to bring the dispute to international court for settlement. 

               2.  What is the optimal outcome of the crisis?

The Russian has engineered Crimea return to them. It is unlikely to cough out its prey they devoured easily. Even the fragile sanction by the West is lacking the fire power that emboldens them.

The worst case will be: It arouses political upheavals in the East of Ukraine or where Russians are  the majority inhabited. It doesn't have to vanquish the whole of Ukraine, but exhibits their existence by harassments of the local government, using Ukraine to create a buffer zone to avert NATO’s encroachment. Putin is not an economic czar but superb in political manoeuvre. Their is an energy economy. He can’t turn Ukraine economy around, conquering Ukraine only adds to the burden of his own country. Energy sale dependence becomes his Achilles heel.

If the West is in unity to boycott Russia’s energy supplies that will cause a big dent to their energy revenues. For this, it will draw Mr Putin to the negotiation table, and both sides will find palatable middle ground. For Russia, it will avert colossal economic failures. But what is lamentable is Ukraine, being a seed of the chess board in the new Cold War's game plan

5. US to release oil from strategic reserve - FT.com | US Politics &... 13 March 2014

The caption is tantamount to imply that whether direct confrontation in between Russia and China is eminent. Many political analysts' short answer is no. Citing the era of Cold War is over, as the world is gearing toward globalization. Each economy is now intertwined. I am particularly lamenting the West put their economic interests above rescuing a democratic process. It is not clear how adamant the US is willing to go for war for the Ukrainians. It was said that there are some oil and gas contracts with Russia are impending, and the US without the EU cooperation is rickety, there is little headway. US does less trade with Russia, but not as vulnerable as her Europe counterparts.

The American is warm; John Kerry was the first leader to give physical support to the Ukrainian’s interim government that saw he held hands with Ukrainian’s leaders, on TV screen, the non-verbal signal exuded on the face see grinning. Ukrainian has little hope that the EU what they longed to join has given them cold shoulder. The Germany is depending on the natural gas from Russia, and France lucrative navy contract, UK is for financial center making them reluctant to uphold justice. Especially is the warm tie in between the big brother in the EU, the Germany and Russia for some historical reasons, making imposing economic sanction near impossible. There is a big leak in the imposition.

The shrewd Russian has made calculated moves; they know they can replay the episode of Georgia without any threat. They don’t believe in international law, but military might with nuclear threat. They fired a long range missile to forewarn the US of their military capability. The Cold War is not over, less ideological, but competing on military might. This applies to China, and North Korea. That is the reason why China is flexing its muscle to show strong-arm tactic to their neighbours and North Korea never be naïve to give up nuclear weapons hope. They pragmatically learn from one another how to survive in this contemporary jungle. 

The Russians foresee the US will not involve in military intervention and they can easily get away with incursion to the soil of Ukraine without any punishment. And now Crimea is under Russia military control. This is strategic. Russia may not want to further its military expansion to cover the whole of Ukraine with no clear advantage, because Ukraine is almost economically broke, and the repercussion of the world haranguing. It is a sad story for a weak country hectored by its far stronger neighbour.

6.Renminbi’s fall marks seismic shift FT .com 3 March 2014

It is not hard to engineer the FX rate in all possible ways, if you have amply kept fabulous foreign reserves that form a major market force to influence the currency trends. It is as if the Japanese Yen fallen against the greenback in the past year. Of course, we want to check the justification for currency devaluation against the fundamentals. It was said that devaluation will curb the teething trouble of hot monies flowing into China. This foreign fund was deemed as real culprit for speculation sloshing around blowing up property bubbles.

 A change of direction will be a showpiece that there is a limit to currency appreciation; especially to speculators that long RMB, in the thought that uptrend will continue perennially. Those got their hand burnt will likely to think again their currency strategy that will help to cool the influx of foreign funds. There will soon come a time when the wider band of currency fall also engrains the currency policy reform towards free float.

At this slowing economic environment, PMI and manufacturing data indicating bleak economic prospect, currency devaluation gives the export economy a boost, as the coastal areas are fighting for increasing wages, intensive competition as cheap source of supplies, more expensive input in pursuit for a razor thin margin. It certainly will give a breathing space for manufacturing front amidst the restructuring process in the sector. It is not clear how it will boost domestic consumption by cheaper import in Chinese stance (No clear evidence of demand elasticity in foreign goods), neither would the devaluation will elevate price level, so the impact I see in no uncertain terms is neutral.

7. What's going on with emerging market stocks? 4 Feb 2014     CFO network

I see it as a litmus test to the financial health of the emerging market. If the emerging market observed fiscal policy rectitude early, it would have had better fortified its financial position. The rout of funds from equity market and the risk of currency gyration would not make a big dent to the emerging economies. Look beyond Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, India or Brazil. 

2014 started at the wrong foot, the world economy did not cut the mustard. Contagious or not, or blame the Fed withering stimulus process , There was bubble hyping the equity market by the idle cash speculation, and now the market is back to its normalcy.

Nevertheless, I am viscerally of the view that the world economic growth is an undulating path and convulsive; it is too early have a jaundiced eye to devoutly envision an ephemeral phenomenon as trends going forward, and oblivious to the fact that the incipient world economic recovery is gradually gaining strength.

  8,    Thai Default Risk Soars as Funds Pull $4 Billion: Southeast Asia 21 Jan 2014

If I were the investor, I would shelve my investment plan for the inveterate risk of political ambivalence in Thailand despite some Thai businessmen optimism's about quick rebound once the crisis is over. I don't share that euphoria for there is no solution in sight, as the protestors’ unyielding stance wanting the Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to step down.  Whereas Yingluck adamantly stays put. She was accused to be the puppet of her brother Thaksin Shinawatra who went on exile after indicted of corruption.

Though many Thais believe Thaksin is the person ruling Thailand behind the veil. Unlike her ousted brother, Yinkluck comes clean and not a despot besides her controversial unsustainable rice purchasing policy placates rice farmers in the North which almost depletes the government cash reserves, and now owing the farmers for several months most likely will induce political upheaval if that populist policy boomerangs.

It is also the discontent of the opulent Bangkok middle class accusing Yingluck using their tax money to subsidize farmers in the North. (According to a paper, Farmers in the North also pay tax, the amount goes into subsidies probably is negligible.) For this policy, Ms Yingluck will also face indictment by anti-corruption committee.  So there are many hurdles hobble ahead waiting for her to stumble. And it was said that the upper house lawmakers, Judiciary members, even the monarchy, and the army are all not on her side, the army is supposed to assist the government to maintain the rule of law, but Ms Yingluck requests the army to be neutral, rather than on her side. 

The whole situation is the army doesn’t take side means on the side of her unrelenting opponent Mr Suthep, because without the military backing, her position is precarious. The arrest warrant serves to detain Suthep of little avail, no action by the police force thus far. A commander in the crisis can‘t bestride the country by mobilizing forces to maintain law and order, and then her position probably is precarious. Mr Suthep is taking advantage of her political naiveté and ineptitude. She thought without using force, she will be at the political high ground. By any western standard, the protesters have crossed the red line, should be dispersed by force.

The aim of the protestors is tantamount to overthrow an elected government. Nothing more than that! Ms Yingluck might be a puppet of her brother, and implemented the wrong policy that now backfired. Her opponent can’t prove that she is corrupt. There is no compelling reason to topple her because her brother was indicted. Her opponent was going too far by planning an unelected people to change the constitution to suit his clique than to all in Thailand. Mr Suthep knows that he has skin in the game, if he fails to vanquish Yingluck; he will be bereft of hope but facing severe sentences. Only he wins this political game will he be exonerated. That is why he refuses to batten down the hatches.

Can see the gridlock why there is no easy solution for the time being, and why the prolong stalemate is the inherent dark cloud overshadow any efforts seeking for middle ground.

              9  How Germany Just Undercut the Euro  8 Feb 2014

While the Germany was on the one hand to prevent a riven Eurozone from dissipating during the crisis; on the other hand, on major policy, it acted intransigently, snootily blushing aside ECB's achievement-- when the southern Eurozone countries were badly in need of funds inject to their financial systems, and ECB came to the rescue.

What should come first? The positive result of an act or an outdated yesteryear's law? Apparently, ECB acted correctly when all hell breaks loose, Eurozone was prostrate, and many Eurozone countries were tenuous on the brink. And now the crisis is near over, the German nitpicking over the past, Look very much archetypically petty politics!

10.   China Auditors Appeal U.S. Ban as Ruling Endangers Diplomacy 15 Feb 2014

Many Chinese listed firms are fraught with earning quality problems, not only in the US, but also in this part of the world. Auditor should have unfettered access to document in order to validate the truth and fairness of accounts presented. We should weight the cost of losing business of noncompliance with opaque Chinese law with maintaining overall audit quality that has been established as our brand over the years. If regulator in favor of more IPOs and Chinese audit clients, then it should get ready for more frequent fall out of accounting shenanigans, a price to pay for.

11,   Austerity drive crimps gift-giving by China’s rich - FT.com | China                    17 January 2014

This change of bureaucratic and business culture is long overdue. It epitomizes rampant corruption practice in disguise. Only Xi JingPing has the mettle to eradicate this aged-old practice. This episode is part of the larger picture of anti-corruption movement. Xi and other communist leaders fully aware that if they fail to stem it. The party's legitimacy would be at stake. Imagine its prevalence encroaches into central committee, like Zhou Yongkang. A culture of power entwine with money. There are good chances to get rich quick at any level in the hierarchy. Even in the hospital, you must give red packet to the surgeon to receive surgical operation. Look absurd, but is true in China..

          12     Baltic Dry Index Crashes 18% In 2 Days 14 Jan 2014

The New Year was heralded with the rout of Baltic Dry index that frizzled out the proverbial analysts’ very much raved about exuberant optimism. Speaking in earnest, the realistic scenario probably will envision a mild one, the raison d’etre is the pernicious feeble demand which overshadows among economic powers, such as the US, China and Eurozone, albeit light in the tunnel, bereft of  momentous intensity to propel the world economy toward faster growth. Baltic Dry index‘s rout is just a prognosis of how low trade demand ensnares the world economy to a supine low growth environment. 

13  Fears after key China debt level soars 70% - FT.com | China 1 Jan 2014

Not particularly alarming at this stage by looking at the Balance Sheet as a whole which amassed with foreign reserves. The latest changes of sharing of tax revenues in between the central government and the local in a way will help the deleveraging process.

The public debts can take it in own stride for the time being, unbeknownst to us is the flimsy level of private debt which accentuates to have a bash of debt restructuring process at full throttle may be on the card for now to avert the bane of a hastening full blown crisis in times.